Tiderna förändras men börsens känsloregister består

Den senaste veckan har jag haft semester och njutit av landsbygden. Börsen har följts sporadiskt genom text-tv (som för övrigt inte utvecklats ett jota sen min barndom). Börsen förvånar mig som vanligt. I torsdags gick t.ex. börsen ner 6%, ett "historiskt" börsras. Jag har inte hunnit läsa ikapp ännu men det ska ha varit någon svag amerikansk statistik som var orsaken? Börsen är hursomhelst ner 11% på en vecka. 

1929, 1987 eller 2008? Börsoro är inget nytt.
(bildkälla)

Oron är nog stor i stugorna och börsen har väl sällan varit så svängig. Då är det tryggt att vända sig till "värdeinvesterarnas bibel" The Intelligent Investor. Boken är skriven av Benjamin Graham som är en av Warren Buffetts största idoler. Under den gångna veckan har jag läst originalversionen från 1947. Mycket välskriven bok som är lika aktuell idag. Här kommer några kloka ord från Graham om börssvängningar.

Köpa eller sälja?

"The real money in investing will have to be made- as most of it has been in the past- not out of buying and selling, but out of owning and holding securities, receiving interest and dividends, and benefiting from their long-term increase in value."

Vänta på gynnsam makro?
"Price respond vigorously to any significant change in either current earnings or short-term earnings prospects. It appears to be an axiom of the market that stocks should and do sell much higher when the “situation is favourable” than when it is unfavourable. The fact that both favourable and unfavourable situations are part of any normal longterm picture- and as a consequence both should be accepted without undue excitement- is evidently not part of the stock market´s philosophy. 

[…] The investor must fix his eye not on what the market has been doing. Or what it apparently is going to do- but only on the result of its action as expressed in the relationship between the price level and the level of underlying or central values. "

Tima börsen?

"By timing we mean the endeavour to anticipate the action of the stock market- to buy or hold when the future course is deemed to be upward, to sell or refrain from buying when the course is downward. By pricing we mean the endeavour to buy stocks when they are quoted below their fair value and to sell them when they rise above such value. […] We are convinced that the intelligent investor can derive satisfactory results from pricing […] We are equally sure that if he places his emphasis on timing, in the sense of forecasting, he will end up as a speculator and with a speculator´s financial results.

 [...] By shifting his emphasis from price movements as such to their effect on the level of values the investor can retain his original and proper status as the buyer of sound securities and at the same time react intelligently to the recurrent fluctuations of the stock market. […] His role is not that of a prophet but of a businessman seizing clearly evident investment opportunities. […]

"trying to be less irrational than the mass of speculators who insist on buying after the market advances and selling after it goes down."

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Jag har fler citat på lager till kommande inlägg! Jag har gjort en del nya "upptäckter" trots att jag läst boken flera gånger.