"Short-Term Bonds Are the Least-Bad Choice"

Här kommer några utdrag ur en intervju på morningstar med Bill Bernstein, "author of several books about money and economics and economic history".

 "There has been a lot of talk about being in a bond bubble. I think bubble is the wrong word. I think perhaps bond orgy would be a better way to put it. [...] the first question you have to ask is, is what are these low yields due to and I think part of it is investor preference. But I think the other part, obviously, is the massive amount of purchasing the federal government is doing--quantitative easing or to give it its real name, printing money.  

I think that the investor has a choice of whether to reach for the yield and go out the duration curve or to take some credit risk or to stay safe. The way I look at it is as a Pascal's Wager, in other words what's the most least disastrous mistake that you can make.

If you believe that inflation is going to heat up and you stay short on your durations and keep your credit quality high and you are wrong, you have lost a couple of percent of yield. Now, that’s not good, that’s bad. But if on the other hand, you believe that inflation is not going to be a problem and you go out of the yield curve and you lend long with long treasuries and long corporates and you are wrong, and there is inflation and rates do dramatically increase, you will have your head handed to you. So Blaise Pascal, if he were to look at today's bond market, would probably say that the least worst mistake he could make would be to stay shortened and suck it up and accept these low yields and be wrong. I think that's what the rational person chooses to do in this environment."

Han ger också några tips angående råvaror, "hedge-like investments"
"   Well, I see this as an investment industry gimmick. Whenever Wall Street wants to sell you a new asset class, you should hold on tight to your wallet, and I think that’s certainly been the case with commodities.

When too many people are trying to buy an asset class, when too many people are trying to protect themselves against inflation, or when too many people are trying to protect themselves against deflation, it becomes self-defeating because they bid up the price of those vehicles."

Kloka ord, jag håller med båda resonemangen (vilket kanske är tydligt med tanke på tidigare inlägg). Värderingarna är så höga att man inte får någon vidare belöning för risken man tar. 

Off-topic om Pascal
"  according to Pascal, one cannot come to a knowledge of God’s existence through reason alone, so the wise thing to do is to live your life as if God does exist because such a life has everything to gain and nothing to lose."   (Citatkälla)

Invändning mot Pascals resonemang (Bildkälla)

Nya stimulansåtgärder i USA
Affärsvärlden skriver i dagens nummer (3e november) att den amerikanska centralbankens ordförande Ben Bernanke idag onsdag förväntas tillkännage att FED ska böra köpa stora mängder amerikanska statspapper. Affärsvärlden fortsätter:

"   När man köper obligationer går priset på dem upp och räntan ned. Syftet är att trycka ned långräntorna [...] att sänka styrräntan [...] ytterligare är inte möjligt. "

Artikeln skriver om en auktion i förra veckan för TIPS (amerikanska låga inflationsskyddade räntor) gav negativa kupongräntor. Affärsvärlden fortsätter "
"   I Sverige hade vi, för övrigt, en liknande situation i våras. Då sålde Riksgälden svenska reala statsobligationer med två års löptid till negativ kupongränta. [...] Även då förväntade sig placerarna att inflationen skulle göra att det ändå blev några öres vinst per krona. "

Ser ut som ett riktigt ormbo att gå in i långa räntor i nuläget. Det krävs nog bra fingertoppskänsla när det gäller inflation och räntebana. Något jag saknar.