Tillväxtmarknadsaktier , inget för mig

Här kommer ett tips om en utmärk video/artikel på morningstar som i stora delar överensstämmer med min syn på tillväxtmarknader. Det är en intervju med Fran Kinniry från Vanguard's Investment Strategy Group. Några citat:

BNP-tillväxt = Rosig börs?

"So, GDP growth, there is no doubt in our mind or in anyone's mind quite frankly, that the emerging market economies are going to have GDP growth substantially more than the developed international and the U.S. However, that does not necessarily translate into outperforming capital markets.

 We've looked at all metrics that you could possibly look at to try to give you a handicap edge on the forward-looking capital markets, and our findings were that GDP growth actually had zero correlation to future capital market expectations.

[...]The analogy I always use is growth companies and value companies. So whether they'd be in the international sector or the U.S. sector, the style boxes that are out there, you see the growth companies by definition have typically 2.5 to three times P/E earnings growth estimates higher than value companies, and yet when you look at the returns, value companies outperform growth companies.

[...] the P/E ratios [hos tillväxtmarknader] have actually all of a sudden become a premium where they have historically been at a discount to the developed world."

Det här är inte den första undersökning jag sett som kommer fram till att sambandet mellan BNP-tillväxt och aktieutveckling är svagt. Har till och med sett undersökningar som visar på ett svagt negativt samband. Vill ni läsa mer rekommenderar jag Montiers bok Value Investing, han har ett kapitel som heter "Overpaying for the hope of growth: the case against emerging markets"

Ingen bubbla? Diversifiering
Kinniry fortsätter:

"With all that being said we don't necessarily think there is a bubble in emerging markets either. We just think expectations and the cash flows that have gone in there at such an accelerated pace look to be ahead of themselves. Valuations look compressed all over the place, which means that there is nothing really in bubble territory. There is also nothing really selling ridiculously cheap, either.

[...] within the international space we very much believe in market proportional, which means no different than how the U.S is market-cap weighted, we would take the cap weighting of the international space. And so within that you'd see that the emerging market takes up about 25% of the international space."

 Jag har bara några enstaka procent (genom min globalfond) i tillväxtmarknader. Jag "offrar" en del diversifiering mot att jag känner mig tryggare.